GafferLab

GW - · -
Loading FPL data...

Today's Price Changes
Transfer Radar Players ranked by a composite score combining fixture quality, xGI/90, reliability, and ceiling over the next 5 gameweeks. Essential picks score 17+, Strong 12+.
Chip Strategy Expected points each chip gains in its best gameweek, replayed against the template squad. Tiers are per-chip thresholds in points.
Fixture Difficulty (Next 3 GWs)

News & availability

Player availability
Returning soon
Fixture congestion Cup fixtures pulled from football-data.org alongside league games, so you can see which squads face a rotation risk before the deadline.
Latest headlines

Explore

Your week

The Lab

Explore

Weekly journal Every gameweek's preview and review
About Transfer Trends: These are gross totals for the current gameweek and reset at each deadline, so they won't line up row-for-row with the overnight Price Changes tab. Net flow is what moves a price — the Net column shows it, next to FPL's own progress toward the ±100% trigger.

Transfer Activity

0 0

Price Changes

0 0

Insights & Analytics

Interactive charts organized around key FPL decisions. Each tab tells a story — start with a question, follow the data to an answer.

Click another player to compare

Start with the fixtures

Good transfers begin with good fixture runs. See which teams have the easiest upcoming schedule, then find the highest-value players within those runs.

Team Fixture Difficulty at a Glance

ⓘ

Fixture Run Scoring — Top 25

ⓘ

Fixture-Adjusted Value Rankings

ⓘ

Find the value

Now that we know which teams have good fixture runs, find the top-ranked value options within them.

Player Distribution by Price

ⓘ

PPM Rankings — Top 25

ⓘ

Validate the underlying numbers

High value means nothing if the underlying stats don't support it. Check who has real output vs weak upcoming opponents.

xGI/90 vs Opponent Defensive Quality

ⓘ

Go differential

Found a player with good fixtures, strong value, and solid underlying stats? Check if they're under-owned for a differential edge.

Ownership vs Performance

ⓘ

Is the output real?

Before you commit a transfer, check whether a player's returns are backed by underlying stats or driven by luck.

xGI vs Actual — Who's Over/Underperforming?

ⓘ

Form Variance — Actual vs Expected

ⓘ

What does expected data say?

Dig deeper into the expected vs actual points gap. Players below the line are due a correction upward — prime buy targets.

Expected vs Actual Points (xPts)

ⓘ

Expected vs Actual Performance

ⓘ

What's the trend?

A player can have good season stats but be declining — or poor overall numbers but improving rapidly. Check the trajectory.

Form Trajectory

ⓘ

Hidden edges

Bonus points, points per start, and haul rates by price bracket — the details that separate good picks from great ones.

Bonus Point Magnets — Top 25

ⓘ

Points Per Start — Top 25

ⓘ

Returns by Price Bracket

ⓘ

See the flows

Where is the transfer market moving? See which positions and players are attracting the most price rises.

Transfer Flows — Where Are Prices Rising?

ⓘ

Were price moves justified?

Not every price rise means good value. Check whether recent risers and fallers are backed by real performance.

Historical Price Change Performance

ⓘ

Track the bandwagon

Ownership momentum reveals who managers are rushing to buy or sell. Spot the trends before they peak.

Ownership Rank Movement

ⓘ

Value Trends Over Time

ⓘ

Find market inefficiencies

The market isn't always right. Look for players whose price doesn't reflect their actual output.

Price vs Total Points

ⓘ

The long read

Essays that take one idea behind these charts and test it on a full season of data. Each one ends with what would prove it wrong.

Live league table & motivation buckets

Computed from finished fixtures. The stakes bucket drives motivation overlays in transfer tips and wildcard scoring (e.g. asymmetric CL race vs drifting opponent amplifies the motivated side; relegation 6-pointers compress attacking ceilings).

Loading standings…

Which teams are strongest?

See which teams rank highest for stacking — strong attack for midfielders/forwards, strong defence for clean sheet potential.

Team Attack/Defense Strength Matrix

ⓘ

What's their schedule?

Match team strength with fixture difficulty. High-scoring transfers often target strong teams entering easy fixture runs.

Fixture Difficulty Rating Grid

1 (Very Easy) 2 (Easy) 3 (Neutral) 4 (Hard) 5 (Very Hard) DGW BGW ⚠Likely BGW ⚡Likely DGW
Loading fixture data...

Defensive and goalkeeper picks

Clean sheets drive defender and goalkeeper value. Find which keepers and defenders deliver the most efficient returns.

Goalkeeper Efficiency

ⓘ

Defensive Return Efficiency

ⓘ

Dead ball specialists

Set piece takers get extra chances at goals, assists, and bonus points. Know who's on what duty for each team.

Loading set-piece data...

Transfer Radar (5-Gameweek Outlook)

Expected points (xP) projected over the next 5 gameweeks — built on FPL's official projections, with GafferLab's own xP model shown side-by-side on each card. Projections factor in fixture difficulty, double/blank gameweeks, form, and value for medium-term planning. Captain spotlight uses next GW only for optimal single-gameweek accuracy.

Captain Spotlight

The armband doubles the pick, so it is rated over next gameweek only: expected points on the gameweek's real fixtures, the chance of a haul, and how much you gain on the field.

Rank by
Essential Transfers

Premium players with highest expected returns over 5 GWs. 5GW xP ≥ 14.0 (~4.5/GW)

Strong Picks

Solid options with good expected returns over 5 GWs. 5GW xP ≥ 11.5 (~3.7/GW)

Differential Punts

Low ownership (<15%) with decent returns over 5 GWs. 5GW xP ≥ 10.0 (~3.2/GW)

Watch List

Monitor for upcoming gameweeks. Moderate expected returns over 5 GWs. 5GW xP ≥ 8.5 (~2.7/GW)

Value HQ — Fund Your Premiums
Pick your premium anchors — we'll show the value picks that fit around them:
My List

Players you're following. A card appears here when the Radar has a tip for one.

My Team

Your own FPL squad, read from your team id. Nothing is sent anywhere or stored on a server — the id lives in this browser only.

Find it in the URL when you view your team on the FPL site: /entry/1234567/event/1

Find it in the URL of your league table on the FPL site: /leagues/12345/standings/c

Add your FPL team id above to see your fifteen enumerated against the model over the next five gameweeks — your weakest slot, the best affordable upgrade for it, bench strength, blank and double coverage, and tonight's price exposure.

Add your FPL team id above to see which of your players share a fixture, which of them face each other, and where each club stands in the table.

Add your mini-league id above to see how your fifteen stand against the rivals you are actually playing.

Transfer Planner

Compare two players side-by-side with 5-gameweek projections. Select a player to transfer out and a replacement to see fixture-adjusted expected points, transfer urgency, and cumulative gain over the next 5 gameweeks.

vs

Solved in your browser, on demand — nothing about your squad is sent anywhere.

The Lab

What the engine would do this week: its own team, its chip plan, both drafts and how its calls have scored.

GafferLab XI

Our own automated FPL team: one squad held all season, weekly transfers, captaincy and chip calls published before every deadline — and scored honestly after it, hits and all.

Optimal chip timing based on fixture difficulty, double/blank gameweeks, and expected player performance. Tap any cell for details.

Every value here is what a chip would be worth to the template squad — the Wildcard draft's fifteen — not to yours. Enter your team id in My Team to value the Bench Boost and Triple Captain against your own squad.

Optimal Strong Decent Low

Tap a chip name for guidance, or tap any score cell for detailed reasoning.

Free Hit Draft

Optimal 15-player Free Hit teams for this gameweek. Choose your strategy and explore different draft options. All drafts maximize expected points within the £100m budget constraint.

Loading Free Hit draft...

Wildcard Draft

Optimize your squad for the next 5 gameweeks. Every draft picks the 15, the starting XI and the captain together, maximising expected points over the horizon within your team budget; strategies differ only in the constraints they add.

Best Used: Before fixture swings, ahead of double gameweeks, or to pivot strategy mid-season.

Loading Wildcard draft...

Scorecard

How our own recommendations actually scored, gameweek by gameweek — including the misses. A tier only counts as working when it beats every baseline.

Reference

How the game works this season, and how every season before it finished.

Season archive

No completed seasons yet

Player

Club